TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 1 Tropical Depression “#MaymayPH”

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 1
Tropical Depression “#MaymayPH”
Issued at 5:00 AM, 11 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today
THE LOW-PRESSURE AREA EAST OF CASIGURAN, AURORA DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION “MAYMAY”
Location of Center (4:00 AM):
The center of Tropical Depression “MAYMAY” was estimated based on all available data at 300 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.0°N, 124.9°E)
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and central pressure of 1006 hPa
Present Movement:
Southwestward at 10 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong winds extend outwards up to 200 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Luzon:
Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, and the extreme northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta) including Pollilo Islands
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rains
• Today through tomorrow morning, moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Cagayan, Isabela, and Apayao. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Aurora, and Kalinga.
• Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are expected especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps, and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall. For more information, refer to the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast issued at 4:00 AM today and the Weather Advisory #3 issued at 11:00 PM yesterday.
Severe Winds
Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) may be experienced within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 1 is currently in effect.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
• Under the influence of MAYMAY combined with the surge of Northeast Monsoon, Marine Gale Warning is in effect over the northern seaboards of Northern Luzon, and the eastern seaboard of Central and Southern Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #4 issued at 5:00 AM today.
• In the next 24 hours, the strong surge of Northeast Monsoon may also bring moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) over the western seaboard of Central Luzon. These conditions may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Tropical Depression “MAYMAY” is forecast to decelerate and generally move southwestward in the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of this tropical cyclone is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of southern portion of Aurora or northern portion of Quezon tomorrow afternoon or evening. Afterwards, the center of “MAYMAY” will move west southwestward and cross several provinces in Central Luzon before emerging over the West Philippine Sea by Thursday morning or afternoon.
• “MAYMAY” developed into a tropical depression at 12:00 AM today. This tropical cyclone is forecast to maintain its category in the next 48 hours. The possibility of being downgraded into a Low-Pressure Area is likely as it crosses the Central Luzon.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA